This kind of Electoral College model developed by the Bickers and Berry is the only only one of its kind to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions -- both national unemployment rates as well as per capita income, according to a press release about the study from University of Colorado.
Minnesota has been within 6 points in decent polls, and Obama won it by only 7. CNN, as of Friday morning, even had Clinton below electoral votes for the first time in a long time.
Toss-ups in North Carolina and Florida — as well as optimism that states like Pennsylvania and Michigan might tip back into play — leave supporters hopeful. Indeed, give Trump ALL of the 84 electoral votes in our Tossup column, and he falls short of it gets him to Missouri and Indiana have competitive Senate races, where Democrats are faring well.
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But a narrow path still exists for Trump. According to current data from The Huffington Post Election Dashboardthere are at least 13 states that are either dead heats or within a handful of percentage points in either direction.
The first is from the Rothenberg and Gonzales Ratings.
You can see all twelve maps together at their site. But it is looking like it could be within 10 points for the first time in 20 years. And finally, we have ABC News. States that are very close to a split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction. The last two polls in the state have shown Trumpup five points, and the RealClearPolitics polling average gives the Republican nominee a 3.
Currently, we project that Clinton has electoral votes leaning her way, while Trump has The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in It shows just how close this election has become. Since we last handicapped the Electoral College on Oct. Like Texas for Democrats, probably not.
As you can see, they use boxes to illustrate the states, and how much impact each has in the Electoral College. Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since But we decided to separate them, and see what each of the map authors had to say.
Will Trump win Minnesota? Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September as well as tight races.
Research suggested that voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income. To which Bickers added, "The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.
So his best — and maybe only — path is picking up one of Michigan where Clinton has led in every public poll since AugustPennsylvania where another recent poll had her up double digitsor Wisconsin.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is maintaining a decided advantage in the Electoral College this November, strengthening her grip around states tipping her way while forcing Republican nominee Donald Trump to defend a handful of typical GOP strongholds. Next is the NBC map.
The Marquette Law poll, the gold standard of Wisconsin polling, comes out with a poll this afternoon. But the margin is worth keeping an eye on. Will Clinton win Texas? Clinton is running ads in Texas, and surrogates are in Arizona.Live results for the presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
Aug 22, · Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the presidential election and the. By Goethe Behr | Comments Off on Current Electoral Map Projections, Part Two November 7, at pm Trump’s Electoral College map is still daunting: Even if he runs the table in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, he’s still short of electoral votes.
CNN, as of Friday morning, even had Clinton below electoral votes for.
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Electoral Votes Needed To Win (Recent Race Changes). Oct 19, · John King walks through some major shifts in battleground states with a new CNN electoral map showing an even tougher path to for Donald Trump.Download